Credit Card Delinquency Rate Decline Could Prove Short Lived

Credit card delinquencies, like charge-offs, have trended upward over the past year.  That is until recent reports on the credit card market by both TransUnion and Standard & Poor’s noted that credit card delinquencies – defined as the percentage of borrowers 30 to 90 or more days past due – had experienced a moderate decline.

In its monthly analysis of the U.S. Credit Card Quality Index (CCQI), Standard & Poor’s reported that the delinquency rate for the CCQI – comprised of 22 master trusts of bank card and credit card backed securities – declined from 4.5 percent in March to 4.4 percent in April, following eight consecutive months of increases.

On a similar note to the findings by S&P, TransUnion in its quarterly credit card analysis reported that for the first time since the beginning of 2007, the average national credit card loan delinquency rate experienced a relevant quarterly decline in the first three months of 2008.  According to TransUnion, the ratio of credit card borrowers delinquent on one or more of their credit card accounts declined to 1.19 percent in the first quarter of 2008, a drop of 12.5 percent from the previous quarter.

Amid the continued deterioration of credit card debt quality within the U.S. market, this news was a welcomed reprieve.  As stated by Ezra Becker, principle consultant in TransUnion’s financial services group, this development may signal that “consumers have begun to take stock of their overall debt and begun to catch up on their repayment schedules.”  Though a bit optimistic, this could be a plausible conclusion as negative sentiments regarding the current economy, job market and personal financial stability continue to hammer away U.S. consumers’ willingness to take on new debts.

So if cash-strapped consumers are now paying off debts instead of taking on more, creditors will need to figure out how exactly their internal recovery efforts help position them within consumers’ minds as the creditor of first choice for repayment. And if this latest round of delinquency data proves to be an anomaly, expect to see late payments rise again later in 2008.