Economy Grinding to a Halt: Conference Board

Business management and research firm The Conference Board said Thursday in its latest release of economic indicators that the U.S. economy “may be grinding to a halt” as its closely-watched indicator index fell for the fifth-straight month in February.

The New York-based Conference Board tracks 10 leading economic indicators and produces a monthly index based on their movements. The index fell 0.3 percent in February after falling a downwardly-revised 0.4 percent in January. The company initially reported a drop of 0.1 percent for January.

Five of the 10 indicators turned worse in the month: jobless claims, building permits, delivery times, consumer expectations, and stock prices. Four indicators rose: Real money supply, interest rate spreads, orders for capital goods and orders for consumer goods. The factory workweek measure was unchanged.

"The economy may be grinding to a halt," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the Conference Board, in the release. "Growth will be weak this spring. A small economic contraction cannot be ruled out. The economic signals are flashing yellow."

Bolstering the Conference Board’s claims, in a separate report Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 378,000 last week. Unemployment claims data is one of the leading indicators used in the Conference Board index. The number was higher than economists had anticipated, with those polled by MarketWatch predicting 359,000 new claims.

John Ryding, U.S. chief economist for Bear Stearns, told MarketWatch that the jobs data coming from the Labor Department are "increasingly throwing off recession signals.” The initial jobless claims last week stood at 356,000.