Health Care Concerns Reflected in Election Polling, Early Voter Turnout

The financial meltdown sweeping the globe has dominated most American voters’ mind in the final two months before the presidential election. But there is evidence that health care has begun to factor into pre-election polling results and voter turnout.

According to a Rasmussen poll conducted October 25-26, 51 percent of likely voters trust the Democrat presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama on healthcare issues, compared with 41 percent who trust Republican candidate John McCain.

Meanwhile, research from the Harvard School of Public Health and the Kaiser Family Foundation, writing for the November 6 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine, finds that seven in 10 registered voters say major changes are needed in the U.S. health care system.  The findings will be published in the November 6, 2008, New England Journal of Medicine.

National polls show the Illinois senator with a lead over McCain of Arizona.

Joseph Antos, a health care policy expert with the American Enterprise Institute, said it’s difficult to gauge the extent of voters’ concern about health care in polling because they only can respond to specific questions. However, he said the Democrats message is “the easier one to understand.”

“Most people don’t think about Washington politics,” Antos told insideARM. “For those who do, a Democratic president and Congress are more likely to actually do something.”  

Generally speaking, more Americans are looking for relief from financial problems brought on or exacerbated by higher medical care costs.  The final Kaiser Health Tracking Poll for Election 2008 published in October finds more people reporting problems with health care bills. Nearly one-third of Americans Kaiser polled reported their family has had problems paying medical bills in the past year, up from about 25 percent of Americans saying the same two years ago.  And almost 18 percent of Americans reported household problems with medical bills totaling more than $1,000 in the past year.  

"Health care is a part of the economic anxieties of the public. People are having major problems getting and paying for health care and, if this trend continues, addressing health care as part of the nation’s economic turmoil may be a priority for the nation’s next president," Kaiser President and chief executive Drew Altman said in a press release.

While the research and polls indicate that paying for health care remains near the top of public’s list of their economic concerns, a Rasmussen survey published October 30 indicates Americans are weary of one-party control to bring about health care reform. Only 34 percent of U.S. voters think rule by one political party is better for the country, while 45 percent say it is better if the White House and Congress are each run by a different political party. Twenty-one percent of Americans are undecided.

"Voters want a major change in health care," Robert J. Blendon, Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health said in press release. "But a new administration is going to have to face the very real divide that exists between McCain and Obama supporters on the shape of future reform."